Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef89…37f2 politics 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$535 (-0%) realized −$537 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 142L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,366per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$20
14 days−$39
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$107
politics 34% −$83
sports 15% −$360
culture 3% −$7
world 2% −$3
economics 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 -4.8% -13.9% 7% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 114 +0.9% -8.7% 7% 4% -9.7%
all 165 +0.6% -8.9% 14% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 10% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 10% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 10% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,753) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$16 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$537
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,366
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $290 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $6,551 −$7 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,695 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,676 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,857 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $654 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $544 −$1 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $68 +$47 +70%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $5,389 −$7 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,549 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $76 +$58 +76%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $716 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,124 −$4 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $5,712 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,211 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,459 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,753 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $810 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $504 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $289 17m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $290 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $245 3h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $245 4h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $414 7h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $415 8h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $348 23h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $348 25h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $560 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $68 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 26h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $561 26h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $235 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $558 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $559 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $268 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $268 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $760 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $762 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $702 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $703 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $642 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $643 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $584 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $585 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $712 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $713 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $523 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $523 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.87 · official $247.87 (match) · 575 history records