Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EF 0xef8d…b115 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,645 (+12%) realized +$2,103 · open −$458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$447per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$5,339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$150
sports 16% +$760
crypto 6% +$817
world 4% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +74.3% +57.7% 50% 44% +21.5%
≤30d 18 +74.3% +57.7% 50% 44% +21.5%
≤90d 18 +74.3% +57.7% 50% 44% +21.5%
all 18 +74.3% +57.7% 50% 44% +21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.7% 44% +21.5%
10% +42.6% 44% +9.9%
15% +28.8% 39% -0.7%
20% +16.2% 39% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +90% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$478 vs −$215 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$5,339
Realized+$2,103
Unrealized−$458
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions12
Markets (closed)18 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$447
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,338 $1,410 +$72 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $680 $900 +$220 (+32%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 57¢ $500 $681 +$181 (+36%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $500 $476 −$24 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $1,300 $448 −$852 (-66%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 61¢ $279 $362 +$83 (+30%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $400 $307 −$93 (-23%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $348 $304 −$44 (-13%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,014 −$446 -44%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 +$7 +4%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 +$665 +325%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 22 $323 −$160 -50%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $307 +$1,193 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $254 −$241 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $259 +$247 +96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $255 +$392 +154%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $899 +$250 +28%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$161 +785%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $141 −$140 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$32 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$178 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,321 +$1,210 +92%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $246 −$107 -43%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $368 −$36 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $76 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,321 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $410 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $492 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $810 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $212 2h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 5¢ $163 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 10h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 10h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 12h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 12h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 14h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 14h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $254 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $259 14h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 18h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 18h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 18h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $141 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,339.11 · official $5,339.11 (match) · 104 history records