Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EF 0xef91…97b1 crypto 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,390 (-28%) realized −$12,390 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%88W / 107L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days+$393
14 days+$393
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$9,151
sports 9% −$3,162
other 1% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +41.5% +28.0% 100% 100% +22.9%
≤30d 2 +41.5% +28.0% 100% 100% +22.9%
≤90d 15 -37.5% -43.5% 40% 27% -32.4%
all 195 -22.0% -29.5% 45% 42% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 42% -34.8%
10% -36.2% 37% -41.0%
15% -42.4% 29% -46.7%
20% -48.0% 20% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$195 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses88 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage365d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $681 +$125 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $414 +$268 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET May 12 $801 +$200 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $417 −$230 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET Apr 28 $401 −$382 -95%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Apr 27 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $150 −$146 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 27 $257 +$27 +10%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar Apr 27 $70 −$29 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $880 +$31 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $385 −$35 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $1,076 −$1,020 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5PM ET Apr 25 $400 +$87 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 9 at 5P Apr 22 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on August 17 at 5 Aug 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 7AM ET Aug 10 $446 +$204 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 6AM ET Aug 10 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 6AM ET Aug 09 $20 +$14 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 9PM ET Aug 09 $195 +$91 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 8PM ET Aug 09 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 7PM ET Aug 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 6PM ET Aug 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5PM ET Aug 08 $501 +$417 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4PM ET Aug 08 $110 +$76 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 8 at 5PM ET? Aug 08 $340 −$340 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 5PM ET Aug 06 $147 +$35 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 6 at 5P Aug 06 $414 +$233 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on August 6 at 5P Aug 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 6 at 5PM ET? Aug 06 $696 −$696 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9PM ET Aug 06 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8PM ET Aug 06 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6PM ET Aug 05 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5PM ET Aug 05 $83 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 1PM ET Aug 05 $95 +$48 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12PM ET Aug 05 $170 +$87 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 11AM ET Aug 05 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5PM ET Aug 04 $111 −$11 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $115K on August 4 at 5PM ET? Aug 04 $767 +$80 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 4 at 5P Aug 04 $219 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 6PM ET Aug 02 $297 −$100 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 9AM ET Aug 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 8AM ET Aug 02 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 8AM ET Aug 02 $128 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5PM ET Aug 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6PM ET Aug 02 $191 +$63 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 6AM ET Aug 02 $30 +$21 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 5AM ET Aug 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 22 at 5PM ET? Aug 02 $40 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6PM ET Aug 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $806 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $681 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 60¢ $414 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $437 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $11 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $50 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $495 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $87 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $306 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $407 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? SELL Yes 30¢ $53 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? SELL Yes 23¢ $41 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $71 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 40¢ $417 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $83 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 55d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 56d
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik BUY Karen Khachanov 16¢ $100 56d
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik BUY Karen Khachanov 32¢ $100 56d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 56d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $80 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $86 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 753 history records