Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef93…30ad politics 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$20
politics 35% −$19
sports 10% +$93
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 137 +0.5% -9.1% 10% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×12.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage132d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $303 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $281 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $308 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $319 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $256 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $973 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $287 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $504 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $742 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $286 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $308 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $286 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $231 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $302 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $309 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $240 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $246 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $282 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $222 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 21 $644 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 7m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 41h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 26d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 26d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $243 26d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $304 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $305 29d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $284 30d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $284 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $300 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $300 32d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $207 32d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $207 34d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 34d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 34d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $209 35d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $209 35d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $227 36d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $227 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 421 history records