Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef93…faac crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+2%) realized +$44 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate81%110W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 40% -11.5%
≤30d 136 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 40% -11.5%
≤90d 136 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 40% -11.5%
all 136 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 40% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 40% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 24% -20.0%
15% -26.3% 8% -27.7%
20% -33.5% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses110 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 46¢ 100¢ $19 $42 +$22 (+116%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$41 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$35 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.84 · official $32.22 · 316 history records