Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef95…88c0 world 40 markets active 5h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$91 (-2%) realized −$27 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$242
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$125
crypto 29% −$1
sports 6% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -47.7% -52.7% 30% 20% -51.3%
≤30d 18 -32.6% -39.1% 44% 22% -8.5%
≤90d 36 -20.7% -28.2% 39% 25% -10.3%
all 36 -20.7% -28.2% 39% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 25% -10.3%
10% -35.1% 22% -18.9%
15% -41.4% 19% -26.7%
20% -47.1% 17% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$63 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1,223
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage66d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $1,005 $1,008 +$2 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $110 $87 −$23 (-21%)
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+35%)
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $122 $61 −$61 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Jun 09 $299 −$237 -79%
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? May 23 $18 −$10 -58%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +12%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? May 23 $150 −$98 -65%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 23 $500 +$361 +72%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? May 18 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? May 18 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? May 18 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 17 $51 +$86 +168%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? May 07 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31? May 05 $10 +$27 +272%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? May 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 01 $1,501 +$4 +0%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30? Apr 30 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30? Apr 27 $158 −$91 -57%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $170 +$297 +175%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $160 +$571 +357%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 35¢ $500 5h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 35¢ $500 15h
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 15h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $1 40h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $2 41h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $2 42h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $0 43h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 46h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 3¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $62 9d
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 11d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 15d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,223.04 · official $1,223.04 (match) · 160 history records