Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:15:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef98…68f7
crypto · 419 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$739 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,898 · open −$57
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$493
Realized−$1,898
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses259 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions1
Markets (closed)418 / 419
History coverage18d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day179.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 418 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,376
7 days+$1,195
14 days+$300
30 days−$1,898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 57¢ 51¢ $550 $493 −$57 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $339 $0 −$339 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 17¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 38¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BNK FEARX 25¢ 0¢ $234 $0 −$234 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 2 Winner E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 26¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner Gen.G Global Academy 58¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Dplus KIA 84¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner DN SOOPers 22¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner EDward Gaming 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $262 $0 −$262 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 32¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner TLN Pirates 21¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $204 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $364 +$213 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $717 −$595 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $662 +$49 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $304 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $203 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $526 +$224 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $203 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $275 +$214 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $578 −$534 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $350 −$339 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $393 −$266 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$40 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$6 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $93 +$30 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $331 +$201 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $147 +$29 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $182 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $201 +$4 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $572 +$33 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $302 +$60 +20%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $123 −$47 -38%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $228 +$172 +75%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $460 +$162 +35%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$73 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $334 +$246 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $153 +$44 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $249 +$154 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$48 +92%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $158 +$66 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $976 +$264 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $727 −$70 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$141 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $344 +$123 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $305 +$152 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $129 +$29 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $284 −$43 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $166 −$33 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $296 +$107 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$1,035
sports 27% −$920
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $191 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 25m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 8¢ $123 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 +2.7% -7.0% 64% 46% -7.2%
≤30d 418 +0.6% -8.9% 62% 47% -11.7%
≤90d 418 +0.6% -8.9% 62% 47% -11.7%
all 418 +0.6% -8.9% 62% 47% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover179.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 47% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 34% -20.1%
15% -25.6% 24% -27.8%
20% -32.9% 14% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.39 · official $493.39 (match) · 3277 history records