Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef98…b586 weather 637 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (555 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$31 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +261% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +178% what you keep after slip
Net edge+178%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%445W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day555.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (555 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+226.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 834 +261.2% +226.8% 53% 52% -4.3%
≤30d 834 +261.2% +226.8% 53% 52% -4.3%
≤90d 834 +261.2% +226.8% 53% 52% -4.3%
all 834 +261.2% +226.8% 53% 52% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover555.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +226.8% 52% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here +195.5% 48% -13.5%
15% +167.0% 37% -21.8%
20% +140.8% 31% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +261% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late +429% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses445 / 389
Open positions84
Markets (closed)834 / 637
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day555.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 834 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+279%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+91%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+76%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+174%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 416 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +5803%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +4299%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 8? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +7848%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 18 $0 −$1 -3720%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 14? Jun 18 $0 $0 -626%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 26? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +1474%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 24? Jun 18 $0 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21? Jun 18 $0 −$4 -1603%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +21834%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -177%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +10410%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +272%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or higher on May 13? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 27? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +17802%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 21? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 30? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +494%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16? Jun 18 $0 −$1 -584%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 4? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 12? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +4112%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Jun 18 $0 $0 +463%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 18 $0 +$4 +838%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Jun 18 $0 −$17 -13953%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30? Jun 18 $0 −$3 -13895%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +253%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on April 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +1274%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +65468%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 12? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 18 $0 +$2 +12201%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 14? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +56756%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 18 $0 +$3 +67724%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +1341%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5? Jun 18 $0 −$2 -2833%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 11? Jun 18 $0 $0 -752%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 1? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 21? Jun 18 $1 −$5 -452%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 15? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +10788%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 14°C or below on March 25? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +34388%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12? Jun 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 28? Jun 18 $0 $0 -3314%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.44 · official $34.12 · 3500 history records