Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef9a…10f3 crypto 37 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-4%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 30% -14.9%
≤30d 37 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 30% -14.9%
≤90d 37 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 30% -14.9%
all 37 -17.1% -25.0% 54% 30% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 30% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 16% -23.1%
15% -38.7% 14% -30.5%
20% -44.7% 8% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$9 +280%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records