Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef9e…457c crypto 783 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (213 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-2%) realized −$172 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%327W / 453L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day213.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$382
14 days−$855
30 days−$855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,019
sports 4% +$197
other 1% −$34
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (213 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 451 -15.8% -23.8% 41% 37% -16.6%
≤30d 780 -17.8% -25.6% 42% 37% -18.0%
≤90d 780 -17.8% -25.6% 42% 37% -18.0%
all 780 -17.8% -25.6% 42% 37% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover213.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 37% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 30% -25.9%
15% -39.2% 23% -33.0%
20% -45.2% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses327 / 453
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)780 / 783
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day213.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 31¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 14¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 344 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$31 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$31 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$19 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$114 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +149%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 +$41 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$96 +334%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$20 -79%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +303%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$75 +1467%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$16 +321%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$15 +189%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $13 +$13 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $29 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $45 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $36 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $23 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $18 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $37 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $27 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $93 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.94 · official $13.33 · 2438 history records