Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef9f…425e
other · 550 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$4,248 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,778 · open −$331
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$375
Realized+$3,778
Unrealized−$331
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses397 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions7
Markets (closed)543 / 550
History coverage422d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 7 History 543 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$876
14 days+$1,665
30 days+$2,307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $201 $228 +$27 (+14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 56¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 57¢ 0¢ $114 $1 −$113 (-99%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 54¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 40¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
League of Legends: DRX vs. OKSavingsBank BRION DRX 46¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Hanwha Life Esports 84¢ 0¢ $403 $0 −$403 (-100%)
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? No 88¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-23? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-25? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $919 $0 −$919 (-100%)
Will River Plate beat Monterrey? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13? No 86¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-20? No 66¢ 0¢ $660 $0 −$660 (-100%)
Twins vs. Dodgers Twins 97¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? No 75¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 37¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 76¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-01-18? No 79¢ 0¢ $552 $0 −$552 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-23? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Brewers vs. Mariners Mariners 56¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In KT Rolster 72¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 42¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $122 −$121 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $120 −$119 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $44 +$56 +129%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$7 -12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $70 +$30 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $290 +$163 +56%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$11 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$52 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $79 +$221 +280%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$49 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $53 +$47 +90%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $75 +$25 +33%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $27 +$3 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $87 +$13 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $80 +$20 +25%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $78 +$72 +93%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $50 +$50 +100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $46 +$54 +119%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $42 +$20 +47%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $48 +$52 +108%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $29 +$21 +70%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $48 +$52 +109%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $38 −$37 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $104 +$96 +92%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $42 +$178 +428%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $99 +$131 +133%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $106 −$104 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $82 +$42 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $157 +$62 +39%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $93 +$71 +76%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $330 +$679 +206%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $73 +$47 +65%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $40 +$10 +24%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $41 +$9 +21%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $67 +$43 +65%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $106 +$74 +70%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $30 +$8 +27%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $68 +$30 +43%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $32 +$8 +25%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $22 +$8 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% +$750
other 34% +$36
politics 6% +$1,829
world 0% +$926
crypto 0% −$100
culture 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $115 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $80 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $16 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $24 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $54 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $60 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $60 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $62 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $39 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $45 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $74 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $35 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $2 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $59 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $42 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $44 25h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $2 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $5 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $1 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $14 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $23 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $57 27h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $70 27h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $185 28h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $66 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $82 30h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $39 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $48 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +40.3% +27.0% 71% 71% +24.7%
≤30d 94 +32.9% +20.2% 78% 76% +27.5%
≤90d 133 +26.5% +14.5% 77% 73% +20.3%
all 543 +6.3% -3.8% 73% 54% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 54% -7.9%
10% -13.1% 40% -16.7%
15% -21.5% 26% -24.8%
20% -29.2% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.89 · official $374.89 (match) · 2097 history records