Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xefa0…c26e other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%42W / 54L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$18
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$24
other 28% +$4
sports 21% $0
politics 14% +$13
finance 1% −$9
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 28 -3.2% -12.5% 32% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 39 -2.1% -11.5% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 96 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses42 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage468d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $274 +$6 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $164 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $114 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $125 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $114 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $246 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $266 +$2 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $291 −$26 -9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $139 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $248 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $128 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $152 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $571 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $153 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $138 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $19 −$4 -19%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $150 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $135 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $149 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $15 −$9 -63%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $173 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $207 +$1 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $156 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $118 +$7 +6%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $732 +$2 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $963 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $957 +$7 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $960 −$4 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,057 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $2 $0 -8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $62 9m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $41 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $38 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $126 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $126 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $114 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $114 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $25 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $100 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $125 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $114 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $114 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $127 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $127 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $113 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records