trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $250 | $250 | +$0 (+0%) |
| LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $46 | $0 | −$46 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET | Down | 20¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| James Harden: Points O/U 3.5 | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Jun 11 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | Jun 10 | $127 | +$123 | +97% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 | May 27 | $182 | +$162 | +89% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | May 26 | $131 | +$65 | +50% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET | May 26 | $26 | −$25 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | May 26 | $52 | −$19 | -37% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 | May 26 | $102 | +$48 | +47% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET | May 26 | $26 | −$6 | -23% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | May 26 | $61 | +$3 | +4% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 25 | $15 | −$2 | -11% |
| LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 | May 10 | $46 | −$46 | -100% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 3.5 | May 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | May 03 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w | May 01 | $5 | −$1 | -22% |
| Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w | May 01 | $2 | $0 | -25% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 24? | Apr 26 | $86 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Apr 23 | $87 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +48.6% | +34.4% | 100% | 50% | +40.1% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +11.7% | +1.1% | 60% | 40% | +29.1% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 47% | 24% | +15.0% |
| all | 17 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 47% | 24% | +15.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 24% | +15.0% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 24% | +4.0% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 24% | -6.0% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 12% | -15.3% |