Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefa2…241f sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$127 (+13%) realized +$120 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$35
other 35% +$169
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.2% -15.2% 69% 46% +4.2%
≤30d 14 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 50% +4.5%
≤90d 14 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 50% +4.5%
all 14 -3.0% -12.2% 71% 50% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 50% +4.5%
10% -20.6% 50% -5.5%
15% -28.3% 36% -14.7%
20% -35.3% 14% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 78¢ 79¢ $163 $165 +$2 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 94¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $182 +$4 +2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 25 $168 +$14 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $135 +$99 +73%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $116 +$32 +27%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 +$32 +40%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 +$1 +31%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $18 −$15 -84%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.30 · official $191.25 (match) · 31 history records