Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EF 0xefa2…e596 crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-4%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%85W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$135
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$135
sports 7% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -9.8% -18.4% 61% 57% -13.6%
≤30d 140 -9.5% -18.1% 61% 57% -12.0%
≤90d 140 -9.5% -18.1% 61% 57% -12.0%
all 143 -11.4% -19.8% 59% 56% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 56% -13.0%
10% -27.5% 42% -21.3%
15% -34.5% 29% -28.9%
20% -40.9% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses85 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage234d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 58¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $63 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$54 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $76 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $62 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.53 · official $4.27 (match) · 280 history records