Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 21 History 221 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$169
14 days+$4,106
30 days+$10,554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ $1,402 $20,762 +$19,360 (+1381%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12,858 $14,350 +$1,492 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10,170 $12,905 +$2,735 (+27%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $7,684 $7,188 −$496 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,820 $4,890 +$1,070 (+28%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,100 $3,150 +$1,050 (+50%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3,014 $2,893 −$121 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,123 $2,704 +$581 (+27%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $2,638 $2,623 −$15 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $1,533 $1,844 +$311 (+20%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,800 $1,725 −$75 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,600 $1,700 +$100 (+6%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $851 $869 +$19 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $800 $700 −$100 (-12%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $556 $543 −$13 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $468 $471 +$3 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 74¢ 74¢ $446 $443 −$3 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $405 $401 −$4 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $280 $245 −$35 (-12%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 84¢ 80¢ $193 $186 −$7 (-4%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $212 $185 −$26 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $828 −$426 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $846 +$235 +28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $632 +$68 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 11 $227 +$3 +1%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $34 $0 -1%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $291 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,480 −$1,031 -70%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $276 +$11 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,463 +$1,056 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $312 −$219 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $665 +$171 +26%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $541 +$40 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,295 −$309 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $333 +$175 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $989 −$122 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $503 +$180 +36%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $461 +$19 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $83 −$34 -42%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $639 −$639 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $561 −$29 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $453 +$43 +10%
Will Álex Remiro be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $150 +$4 +2%
Will Carlos Soler be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $372 +$81 +22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $246 −$166 -68%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1,021 +$75 +7%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $313 +$86 +27%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $276 +$91 +33%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $244 +$81 +33%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $203 +$6 +3%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,903 +$97 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,182 +$218 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $928 +$172 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $698 +$120 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $239 −$30 -12%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $914 +$786 +86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,020 +$3,069 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $301 −$136 -45%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $7 $0 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $786 +$166 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $793 −$76 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,210 −$375 -31%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $479 +$292 +61%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $517 +$143 +28%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for th May 29 $160 +$90 +56%
Will Monza achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 s May 29 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1,037 +$69 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$3,011
sports 44% +$10,181
crypto 5% +$3,172
politics 0% −$10
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 10m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 12m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 17m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 19m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $35 27m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 34m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 39m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 48m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $8 53m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 56m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 59m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $67 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 2h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $407 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $402 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $421 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 7h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 7h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 35% -10.6%
≤30d 104 +6.5% -3.6% 69% 52% +5.7%
≤90d 192 +10.0% -0.5% 66% 52% -9.9%
all 221 +15.0% +4.0% 66% 51% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 51% -14.1%
10% -5.9% 38% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -15.0% 23% -29.8%
20% -23.3% 17% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,778.44 · official $80,778.56 (match) · 3500 history records