Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefa8…65b3 crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$350 (+1%) realized +$350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%74W / 8L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$591per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$60
14 days+$136
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.0% -8.7% 88% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 82 +0.8% -8.8% 90% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 82 +0.8% -8.8% 90% 0% -8.9%
all 82 +0.8% -8.8% 90% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$787) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×13.4 per $1 lost it wins $13.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses74 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage30d
Avg bet$591
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $647 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $289 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,077 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $428 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,413 −$14 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $474 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? Jun 21 $823 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $387 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $799 +$18 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $762 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $787 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $813 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $774 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,558 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $874 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $751 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $425 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $191 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $507 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $738 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $731 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $732 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $726 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $635 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $802 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $717 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,425 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,035 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $951 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $790 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $312 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $293 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $546 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $621 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $353 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $735 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $346 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 15m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $42 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $655 44m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? SELL Yes 97¢ $653 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $647 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $344 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $289 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 98¢ $56 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $55 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $602 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $224 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $273 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 492 history records