Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefac…c070 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%14W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$18
politics 21% −$7
economics 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
sports 2% +$47
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 +6.1% -4.0% 15% 10% -9.5%
all 96 +6.1% -4.0% 15% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 10% -9.5%
10% -13.2% 10% -18.1%
15% -21.6% 9% -26.0%
20% -29.3% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses14 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage87d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $190 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $299 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $287 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $294 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $296 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $283 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $27 +$1 +2%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $296 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $275 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $724 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,393 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $305 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $485 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $306 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 11 $304 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 19h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $190 25h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 45h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 47h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 11d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 15d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 17d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $50 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 24d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $107 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.28 · official $189.28 (match) · 296 history records