Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xefad…06ba crypto 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$35 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2
politics 1% −$39
sports 0% −$4
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -18.9% -26.7% 50% 50% -41.4%
≤90d 14 -24.0% -31.3% 43% 43% -9.6%
all 21 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 48% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 48% -9.6%
10% -25.4% 38% -18.2%
15% -32.6% 29% -26.1%
20% -39.2% 24% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage147d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 75¢ $76 $115 +$39 (+51%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 25¢ $76 $37 −$39 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 27 $1 +$1 +65%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 06 $1 +$1 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 27? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? Apr 09 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down on March 30? Apr 01 $1 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $5,436 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 24 $5,087 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down on March 17? Mar 19 $1 $0 +24%
XRP Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $2 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down on March 10? Mar 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? Feb 09 $2 +$2 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? Feb 04 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $1 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $2 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 61¢ $2 21d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $1 40d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $1 42d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $1 50d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 59¢ $1 55d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? BUY Up 81¢ $1 77d
Solana Up or Down on March 30? BUY Up 89¢ $1 79d
Ethereum Up or Down on March 27? BUY Up 47¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? BUY Up 50¢ $2 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5,087 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5,087 90d
XRP Up or Down on March 17? BUY Up 80¢ $1 92d
XRP Up or Down on March 16? BUY Up 96¢ $2 93d
XRP Up or Down on March 10? BUY Up 76¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? BUY Up 61¢ $2 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 4? BUY Down 49¢ $2 133d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? BUY Up 53¢ $3 135d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 149d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $11 149d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.58 · official $152.60 (match) · 115 history records