Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xefb2…c4ac crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%25W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% $0
world 38% $0
other 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 0% -9.2%
all 27 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses25 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage99d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 10? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 8? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 1? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $53 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 24? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? Mar 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $122 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $111 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $15 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 69d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $14 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $13 76d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $54 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $13 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records