Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefb2…356f crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$509 (+153%) realized +$504 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$504
7 days+$504
14 days+$504
30 days+$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$509
crypto 25% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.1% -15.9% 32% 32% +128.8%
≤30d 19 -7.1% -15.9% 32% 32% +128.8%
≤90d 19 -7.1% -15.9% 32% 32% +128.8%
all 19 -7.1% -15.9% 32% 32% +128.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 32% +128.8%
10% -24.0% 32% +106.9%
15% -31.3% 32% +86.9%
20% -38.0% 32% +68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +153% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +153% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$4 · ×24.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.2 per $1 lost it wins $11.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$504
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage161d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $248 +$509 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $150 159d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $94 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records