Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefb3…3ea4 crypto 300 markets active 2d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%169W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$6
sports 2% −$5
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 48% -0.9%
≤30d 118 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 47% +0.4%
≤90d 300 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 51% -9.6%
all 300 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 51% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 51% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 42% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 33% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 24% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses169 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$6 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$9 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 801 history records