Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefb6…5040
other · 58 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage615d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $21 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $123 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 18 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $225 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $222 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $108 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $7 +$7 +90%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 +$7 +108%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 01 $27 +$33 +121%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 30 $42 +$11 +25%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 27 $51 $0 +1%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20? Mar 23 $25 +$25 +100%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 06 $96 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $13,539 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $21 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$13
politics 15% −$8
other 10% +$28
sports 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $18 15d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $18 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey BUY Croatia 42¢ $7 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $123 26d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $123 26d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $9 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 31d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 32d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 35d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 35d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $106 37d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $106 37d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $105 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 23% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 44 +4.1% -5.8% 27% 18% -8.6%
all 57 +3.0% -6.8% 26% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 14% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 14% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 12% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.90 · official $43.90 (match) · 280 history records