Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefb7…a9ef other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1
other 30% −$1
sports 6% +$2
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 0% -9.9%
all 29 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 7% -9.6%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage477d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $12 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $55 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Raiders make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Mar 31 $9 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Rice vs. Memphis Mar 22 $14 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $22 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $12 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $34 23h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $9 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $22 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $31 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $12 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $12 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $30 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $30 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $30 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $30 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $10 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $35 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $24 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $6 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records