Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefb8…135c sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-3%) realized −$128 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$193
14 days+$311
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$50
other 17% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +23.2% +11.4% 35% 35% +31.9%
≤30d 42 +18.1% +6.8% 48% 45% -17.3%
≤90d 42 +18.1% +6.8% 48% 45% -17.3%
all 42 +18.1% +6.8% 48% 45% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 45% -17.3%
10% -3.4% 38% -25.2%
15% -12.7% 38% -32.5%
20% -21.3% 33% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$56 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage28d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 90¢ 100¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 41¢ 42¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $9 −$4 -46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$4 -51%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $7 +$13 +197%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 +$41 +488%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$32 +178%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $28 −$26 -93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 −$26 -39%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$15 -88%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$31 +422%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$33 +325%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $116 +$58 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $18 +$10 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $81 +$67 +83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $60 +$22 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $50 +$10 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $16 +$35 +216%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $371 −$355 -96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 24 $403 −$96 -24%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $451 +$14 +3%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $551 −$240 -44%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $292 +$50 +17%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $505 +$264 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 10¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 19¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $1 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $20 3h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye $5 12h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye $9 12h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye $0 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $7 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $22 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 44¢ $43 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 29¢ $25 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 29¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 29¢ $3 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 42h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 42h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 42h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 42h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 10¢ $5 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $1 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $1 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $0 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $0 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $0 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.31 · official $141.31 (match) · 109 history records