Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xefb9…4383 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+4%) realized +$44 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$43
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$87
world 31% +$9
other 16% −$59
sports 7% +$9
politics 7% −$6
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -35.7% -41.8% 36% 32% -29.6%
≤30d 25 -34.1% -40.4% 40% 36% -19.7%
≤90d 38 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 42% -2.1%
all 38 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 42% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 42% -2.1%
10% -23.2% 37% -11.5%
15% -30.7% 32% -20.0%
20% -37.5% 26% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)38 / 53
History coverage92d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $196 $227 +$31 (+16%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 82¢ 91¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+41%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 61¢ 46¢ $33 $25 −$8 (-25%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 77¢ 34¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? No 55¢ 55¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-34%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 80¢ 42¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +44%
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor Jun 27 $8 +$4 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 +$4 +59%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$4 -19%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $40 −$28 -71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$4 +423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 06 $86 +$31 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $110 +$37 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 06 $77 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 05 $4 +$8 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 05 $1 +$3 +329%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2h
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Panama vs England FIFA BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Worl BUY Yes 80¢ $10 14h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World BUY Yes 47¢ $1 14h
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor BUY Yes 65¢ $8 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 98¢ $10 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 38h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 54¢ $6 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.60 · official $420.60 (match) · 123 history records