Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefb9…190b other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$314 (+5%) realized +$286 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$3,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$417
14 days+$308
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$400
crypto 1% −$34
sports 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.9% +3.1% 88% 62% +8.5%
≤30d 14 -13.5% -21.8% 64% 50% +2.1%
≤90d 14 -13.5% -21.8% 64% 50% +2.1%
all 14 -13.5% -21.8% 64% 50% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 50% +2.1%
10% -29.2% 43% -7.7%
15% -36.1% 36% -16.6%
20% -42.3% 14% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$41 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,868
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $3,210 $3,238 +$28 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $61 +$6 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$26 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$38 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$144 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$69 +57%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $301 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 97¢ $1,001 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $601 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $1,101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $81 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $61 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $702 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $300 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 9d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 97¢ $300 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $110 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,868.32 · official $3,868.32 (match) · 50 history records