Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EF 0xefba…fc13 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$596 (+51%) realized +$597 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$131per market

Trades / day7.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+39.3%	+26.0%	80%	80%	+44.3%
≤30d	5	+39.3%	+26.0%	80%	80%	+44.3%
≤90d	5	+39.3%	+26.0%	80%	80%	+44.3%
all	5	+39.3%	+26.0%	80%	80%	+44.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.0%	80%	+44.3%
10%	+13.9%	80%	+30.5%
15%	+2.9%	80%	+17.9%
20%	-7.2%	40%	+6.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$205 vs −$200 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.11 per $1 lost it wins $4.11

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$126

Realized+$597

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$131

Trades / day7.1

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$34	$34	−$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$34	$34	−$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$34	$34	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$34	+$13	+38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$407	+$569	+140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$203	+$148	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$201	−$200	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$202	+$92	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$25	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$34	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$34	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$34	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$407	10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$34	24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$201	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.92 · official $125.92 (match) · 13 history records