Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xefba…129b other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 38% $0
politics 6% +$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $84 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $20 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 04 $13 $0 +2%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Aug 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Aug 10 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 06 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $0 $0 -24%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 03 $2 $0 +18%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 14h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $8 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $35 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $13 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $29 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $32 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $43 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $20 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $20 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 163 history records