Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefbb…6258 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+9%) realized +$72 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%50W / 66L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$115
sports 13% −$4
world 3% −$6
crypto 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 37% -5.9%
≤30d 116 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 37% -5.9%
≤90d 116 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 37% -5.9%
all 116 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 37% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 37% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 31% -14.9%
15% -34.5% 25% -23.1%
20% -40.9% 22% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses50 / 66
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)116 / 128
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $97 $144 +$47 (+49%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $61 +$16 +26%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +59%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 +$8 +81%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$6 +119%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $9 +$5 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $6 +$3 +50%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +30%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 +$15 +357%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -65%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $6 +$14 +212%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $20 −$7 -34%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -39%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -76%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17 −$16 -92%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $37 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $39 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $20 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $6 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $9 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $10 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.13 · official $218.13 (match) · 314 history records