Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefbc…67ad crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-5%) realized −$50 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate72%104W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$26
other 11% −$18
sports 8% −$3
world 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -7.7% -16.5% 72% 30% -15.2%
≤30d 144 -7.7% -16.5% 72% 30% -15.2%
≤90d 144 -7.7% -16.5% 72% 30% -15.2%
all 144 -7.7% -16.5% 72% 30% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 30% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 11% -23.4%
15% -31.8% 6% -30.8%
20% -38.5% 2% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses104 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 147
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 55¢ 94¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$9 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $49 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 59¢ $50 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $51 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 9¢ $1 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 10¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 34h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 98¢ $10 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 70¢ $19 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $9 35h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.06 · official $37.06 (match) · 367 history records