Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EF 0xefbf…39d2 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
other 48% +$34
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 7 -13.5% -21.7% 29% 0% -8.4%
all 7 -13.5% -21.7% 29% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 0% -8.4%
10% -29.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -36.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -42.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage97d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $380 $384 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 28 $381 $0 +0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 19 $278 −$3 -1%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 02 $461 +$34 +7%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $458 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $57 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Leo Team (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.80 · official $383.80 (match) · 20 history records