Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefc0…0b52 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$6
politics 18% $0
other 14% −$2
sports 10% −$11
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 12% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 73 +6.6% -3.5% 40% 10% -9.3%
all 76 +5.1% -4.9% 38% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 9% -9.7%
10% -14.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -22.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -30.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage492d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $44 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $90 +$2 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $55 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $3 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $13 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $135 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $35 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $40 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $85 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $33 −$2 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 +$1 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $47 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $10 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $13 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $21 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $47 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $12 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $30 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $30 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records