Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefc3…a12d
crypto · 974 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$47 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$48 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$40
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses406 / 902
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1308 / 974
Avg bet$7
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 1308 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$49
14 days+$113
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 52¢ 62¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 42¢ 38¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 51¢ 56¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 46¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5) VfL Wolfsburg 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 49.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies: O/U 154.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs OpTic Texas (BO5) Vancouver Surge 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 49.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
AC Milan vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies: O/U 154.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs OpTic Texas (BO5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-02-13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-2.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Rice Owls (-5.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. VCU Rams: O/U 152.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Warriors vs. Celtics: 1H Moneyline Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Trabzonspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-01-10? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-13.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Villanova Wildcats vs. Georgetown Hoyas Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-23? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ferencvárosi TC vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: GnG Amazigh vs Vibranium Esports (BO3) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Youngstown State Penguins (-10.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins: O/U 147.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spurs vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Bellarmine Knights (-6.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. PAOK: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$193
world 2% −$16
sports 0% −$11
other 0% −$5
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $0 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 958 -44.6% -49.9% 28% 16% -10.4%
≤30d 1162 -33.6% -40.0% 33% 22% -7.8%
≤90d 1308 -34.4% -40.7% 31% 22% -8.8%
all 1308 -34.4% -40.7% 31% 22% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.7% 22% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 18% -17.5%
15% -51.5% 16% -25.5%
20% -56.3% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.71 · official $39.91 (match) · 3500 history records