Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xefc4…24e8 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+1%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%42W / 42L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$6
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$84
other 37% +$3
finance 1% −$5
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 27 +78.7% +61.7% 41% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 32 +67.4% +51.5% 41% 12% -8.9%
all 84 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 6% -8.9%
10% +1.6% 5% -17.6%
15% -8.3% 4% -25.6%
20% -17.2% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses42 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage462d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $143 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $213 +$3 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $212 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $320 +$8 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $208 −$3 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $209 −$2 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $396 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $131 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $210 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $210 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $172 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $451 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $4 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $654 −$14 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $209 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $615 +$5 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $17 −$3 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $400 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $67 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $516 +$21 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $147 −$5 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $100 +$66 +66%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $170 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $136 −$1 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2,212 +$2 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $17 +$6 +32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 20 $12 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $61 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $90 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $145 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $143 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $180 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $213 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $180 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $76 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $136 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $37 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $129 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $104 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $149 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $56 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $197 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.04 · official $2.70 · 323 history records