Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefc5…efa2 crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$209 (-21%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate28%41W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$38
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$83
sports 19% −$34
other 5% −$50
politics 3% −$16
culture 2% −$25
finance 2% −$12
world 1% −$7
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -16.8% -24.7% 25% 13% -18.1%
≤30d 64 -18.6% -26.3% 23% 11% -18.6%
≤90d 67 -21.8% -29.3% 22% 10% -23.0%
all 147 -33.1% -39.5% 28% 17% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 17% -30.7%
10% -45.3% 10% -37.3%
15% -50.6% 6% -43.4%
20% -55.4% 5% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses41 / 106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage349d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 640 history records