Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EF 0xefc6…623e politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$11
other 20% +$2
politics 10% +$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -7.9%
all 28 +3.0% -6.8% 54% 7% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 7% -7.8%
10% -15.8% 7% -16.6%
15% -23.9% 4% -24.6%
20% -31.4% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.65 per $1 lost it wins $13.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage460d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $227 +$10 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $60 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 17 $6 $0 -1%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 30 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 27 $2 +$1 +23%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $0 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 16 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $57 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $52 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $52 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $16 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $36 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $21 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $42 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $52 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $12 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $30 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $51 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $51 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records