Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

EF 0xefc6…fd74 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$86 (+8%) realized +$64 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate81%17W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day7.1pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+5.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+16.1%	+5.0%	81%	57%	-2.6%
≤30d	21	+16.1%	+5.0%	81%	57%	-2.6%
≤90d	21	+16.1%	+5.0%	81%	57%	-2.6%
all	21	+16.1%	+5.0%	81%	57%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.0%	57%	-2.6%
10%	-5.0%	43%	-11.9%
15%	-14.2%	29%	-20.4%
20%	-22.6%	14%	-28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$136

Realized+$64

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses17 / 4

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage5d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day7.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Over	75¢	100¢	$64	$85	+$21 (+33%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Over	60¢	60¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$50	+$15	+29%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$71	+$27	+38%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$50	+$3	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 19	$11	−$10	-95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$1	+12%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$15	+$7	+46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$45	+$10	+23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$91	−$4	-4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$100	+$2	+2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$72	+$3	+4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$106	+$22	+21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$20	+$3	+16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$80	+$4	+5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$20	+$8	+40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$20	+$1	+4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$52	+$31	+60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$101	+$31	+31%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$13	+251%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$89	−$88	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$51	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	75¢	$64	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	77¢	$50	23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	94¢	$53	24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	89¢	$50	24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$71	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$8	31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Up	54¢	$6	31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	55¢	$30	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	82¢	$50	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY No	68¢	$15	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	81¢	$45	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	78¢	$40	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	81¢	$12	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	73¢	$11	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	98¢	$100	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	71¢	$62	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	68¢	$61	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	92¢	$23	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	79¢	$20	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	48¢	$22	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	43¢	$20	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	78¢	$45	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	82¢	$40	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$84	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	94¢	$80	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.71 · official $135.71 (match) · 49 history records