Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EF 0xefc9…d62f other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$86 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$156
sports 24% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.8%
≤30d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.8%
≤90d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.8%
all 5 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -12.8%
10% -27.3% 40% -21.2%
15% -34.3% 40% -28.8%
20% -40.7% 40% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$43 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $51 $128 +$76 (+148%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $56 +$78 +139%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$42 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 42¢ $52 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $99 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $35 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 3h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $55 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $56 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.70 · official $127.57 (match) · 11 history records