Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefcc…8a1d sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$299 (-14%) realized −$299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%57W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$90
14 days−$288
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$124
crypto 37% −$53
other 19% −$144
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -35.6% -41.7% 27% 27% -23.5%
≤30d 211 -31.3% -37.8% 27% 26% -23.8%
≤90d 211 -31.3% -37.8% 27% 26% -23.8%
all 211 -31.3% -37.8% 27% 26% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 26% -23.8%
10% -43.8% 25% -31.1%
15% -49.2% 21% -37.7%
20% -54.2% 17% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses57 / 154
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage18d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions (123 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$17 +239%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $30 +$20 +68%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -97%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs Sashi Academy (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $22 +$24 +108%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $57 −$27 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$12 +48%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -95%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $9 +$7 +82%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -96%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $6 −$2 -27%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$12 +78%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $35 +$27 +77%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $25 −$8 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45 −$19 -43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $25 +$18 +73%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $25 −$24 -98%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $20 +$38 +191%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 +$17 +170%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$10 +33%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$13 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 45m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 99¢ $50 53m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 55m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 57¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 60¢ $9 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Ella Seidel 7¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $13 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 10¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Francesco Forti 8¢ $15 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 10¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs Sashi Academy (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Invicta 8¢ $7 5d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 39¢ $20 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 2¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $46 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $22 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 53¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $25 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 7¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records