Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

EF 0xefcd…a07b other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$272 (+9%) realized +$282 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate74%20W / 7L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day8.6pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-4.0%	-13.1%	74%	67%	+8.5%
≤30d	27	-4.0%	-13.1%	74%	67%	+8.5%
≤90d	27	-4.0%	-13.1%	74%	67%	+8.5%
all	27	-4.0%	-13.1%	74%	67%	+8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.1%	67%	+8.5%
10%	-21.4%	44%	-1.9%
15%	-29.0%	15%	-11.4%
20%	-36.0%	7%	-20.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$28 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$350

Realized+$282

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)74%

Wins / losses20 / 7

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage5d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day8.6

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	68¢	$260	$251	−$9 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Under	87¢	86¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$562	+$297	+53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$302	+$88	+29%
Netherlands to win the second half?	Jun 20	$100	−$98	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$25	−$25	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$398	+$109	+27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$200	+$14	+7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$99	+$25	+26%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$85	+$35	+42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$142	+$42	+30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$121	+$21	+17%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	Jun 18	$111	+$8	+7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$94	+$19	+21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$36	+$18	+48%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$22	−$22	-99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$49	+$13	+26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$13	+$2	+18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$98	−$29	-30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$100	+$12	+12%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$38	+$9	+23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$30	+$7	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$35	+$8	+23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$49	+$8	+17%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$31	+$4	+14%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 15	$21	+$12	+59%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt?	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$262	40m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	87¢	$100	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	88¢	$401	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	39¢	$161	2h
Netherlands to win the second half?	BUY No	24¢	$61	9h
Netherlands to win the second half?	BUY No	23¢	$39	9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	36¢	$22	9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$3	9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$325	9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	86¢	$281	10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	83¢	$182	10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$117	10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	99¢	$214	10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	92¢	$200	10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	77¢	$302	10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$99	22h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	70¢	$85	22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	98¢	$184	22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	75¢	$142	23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	85¢	$121	2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	BUY No	93¢	$111	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	96¢	$1	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	96¢	$51	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	96¢	$61	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	79¢	$94	2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	52¢	$22	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$62	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	79¢	$49	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	67¢	$36	3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$15	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.26 · official $350.26 (match) · 58 history records