Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefce…3ce7 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-18%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$9
sports 32% +$1
world 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -20.3% -27.9% 26% 26% -29.1%
≤30d 35 -20.3% -27.9% 26% 26% -29.1%
≤90d 35 -20.3% -27.9% 26% 26% -29.1%
all 36 -22.3% -29.7% 25% 25% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 25% -30.7%
10% -36.5% 25% -37.4%
15% -42.6% 25% -43.4%
20% -48.2% 19% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +130%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.98 · official $8.98 (match) · 81 history records