Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xefce…4e4a sports 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,228 (-7%) realized −$22,497 · open +$2,269
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%94W / 120L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,166per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Fees−$1,903est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$49,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1,874
sports 33% +$28,328
other 16% −$13,999
finance 2% +$1,422
crypto 1% +$2,983
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 38% -29.6%
≤30d 131 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 35% -1.5%
≤90d 214 +11.6% +1.0% 44% 37% -2.5%
all 214 +11.6% +1.0% 44% 37% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 37% -2.5%
10% -8.7% 34% -11.9%
15% ← realistic here -17.5% 31% -20.4%
20% -25.6% 29% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,500) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,324 vs −$884 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$49,117
Realized−$22,497
Unrealized+$2,269
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses94 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,903
Open positions34
Markets (closed)214 / 246
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$1,166
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 16¢ 72¢ $1,441 $6,438 +$4,998 (+347%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4,750 $5,175 +$425 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,760 $3,724 −$1,036 (-22%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ $1,406 $3,164 +$1,758 (+125%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 72¢ $1,500 $2,314 +$814 (+54%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 65¢ 100¢ $1,369 $2,104 +$734 (+54%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 83¢ $172 $1,984 +$1,812 (+1053%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 92¢ $1,500 $1,954 +$454 (+30%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 86¢ $1,500 $1,707 +$207 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $1,500 $1,620 +$120 (+8%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $1,500 $1,602 +$102 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $1,500 $1,544 +$44 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,223 $1,296 +$74 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,000 $984 −$16 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 96¢ $699 $880 +$181 (+26%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $728 $830 +$101 (+14%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 90¢ $617 $744 +$127 (+21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 62¢ 90¢ $407 $594 +$187 (+46%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 39¢ 10¢ $1,500 $402 −$1,098 (-73%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 85¢ 86¢ $395 $402 +$7 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $294 $382 +$88 (+30%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 25¢ $1,852 $363 −$1,489 (-80%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 84¢ 99¢ $193 $226 +$33 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 52¢ $275 $185 −$90 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $701 −$527 -75%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,523 +$848 +56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,000 +$1,222 +122%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,000 +$923 +92%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,000 +$1,439 +144%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $506 +$377 +74%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $506 +$362 +72%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1,000 +$1,174 +117%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1,500 −$885 -59%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $3,000 −$374 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1,500 +$396 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,000 +$1,326 +133%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1,941 +194%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,018 +$294 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,000 +$613 +61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $3,000 −$2,399 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,499 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,504 −$1,490 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,499 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,000 +$852 +85%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,000 +$1,041 +104%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,000 +$1,500 +150%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $997 −$947 -95%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,000 +$961 +96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,000 +$1,128 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $1,500 −$1,499 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $136 −$123 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1,041 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 13¢ $132 29m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $174 46m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 46m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 46m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $56 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $17 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $750 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $61 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $17 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $76 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $11 5h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $155 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $509 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $970 6h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $30 6h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $927 6h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,014 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $164 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $61 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $506 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $506 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $46 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $231 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $26 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $17 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,116.84 · official $49,154.48 (match) · 3500 history records