Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EF 0xefd0…9fc7 sports 128 markets active 11h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,137 (+15%) realized +$1,138 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%69W / 53L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days+$206
14 days+$805
30 days+$854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$1,096
other 24% +$88
crypto 2% −$135
world 1% −$51
politics 0% −$16
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 47% +6.7%
≤30d 70 +25.9% +13.9% 56% 53% +13.4%
≤90d 89 +21.6% +10.0% 57% 53% +2.5%
all 122 +14.0% +3.1% 57% 53% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 53% +3.2%
10% -6.7% 48% -6.7%
15% -15.7% 41% -15.7%
20% -24.0% 33% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$1,138
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses69 / 53
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions6
Markets (closed)122 / 128
History coverage241d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -44%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$18 +72%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$12 +49%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $66 +$54 +82%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$64 +250%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$36 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$14 +54%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $70 +$20 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $126 +$84 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $105 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $92 +$98 +107%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $46 +$27 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $60 +$17 +27%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$35 +114%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $283 +$58 +21%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $142 −$5 -4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $107 +$108 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $155 +$54 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $76 −$40 -53%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $82 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $41 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $62 +$30 +49%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $84 +$36 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $76 +$48 +63%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $81 +$64 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $10 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $10 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $10 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $25 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $25 26h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 39h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 40h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 40h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $30 41h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 13¢ $15 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 13¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 92¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $25 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $25 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $41 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 63¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 97¢ $54 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 98¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.37 · official $51.38 (match) · 370 history records