Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefd1…c520
crypto · 891 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2,733 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,732 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$169
Realized−$2,732
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses501 / 389
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$648
Open positions1
Markets (closed)890 / 891
Avg bet$151
Trades / day94.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 890 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$852
7 days−$7,804
14 days−$5,216
30 days−$2,386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 59¢ 58¢ $170 $169 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Rinky Hijikata 31¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth James Duckworth 37¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $216 $0 −$216 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $563 +$154 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $649 +$69 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $279 +$71 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $246 +$134 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $611 +$50 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$63 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $204 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $134 +$100 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $247 +$39 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $118 +$46 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $115 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $351 −$140 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $312 −$68 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $205 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $408 −$15 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $207 +$185 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $145 −$96 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $330 +$36 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $307 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $164 +$45 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $124 −$118 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $278 +$82 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$42 -81%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $204 +$285 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $91 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $197 −$190 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $73 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$14 +27%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $202 +$196 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $43 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $165 +$31 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $83 +$51 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $343 −$330 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $102 +$120 +117%
Martin Landaluce vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $125 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $361 −$351 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $821 −$208 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $344 −$121 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $414 +$138 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $187 −$132 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $871 +$207 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $207 +$36 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$6,531
sports 26% +$3,652
other 1% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $334 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $249 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $507 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $275 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $145 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $213 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $212 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $119 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -22.7% -30.1% 49% 41% -24.8%
≤30d 758 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 48% -11.3%
≤90d 890 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 49% -11.4%
all 890 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 49% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover94.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 49% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 38% -19.9%
15% -30.4% 28% -27.6%
20% -37.2% 20% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.56 · official $168.56 (match) · 3500 history records