Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefd6…1627 other 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-14%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%71W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$40
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$98
sports 45% −$8
crypto 2% −$21
world 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +13.8% +3.0% 70% 68% -0.3%
≤30d 68 -7.2% -16.0% 57% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 112 -7.0% -15.8% 63% 46% -22.4%
all 112 -7.0% -15.8% 63% 46% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 46% -22.4%
10% -23.9% 31% -29.8%
15% -31.2% 21% -36.6%
20% -38.0% 10% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses71 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage104d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$11 -57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$9 -87%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$13 +88%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +20%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $10 $0 -2%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 13m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 14m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 19m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 23m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 40¢ $9 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 39¢ $3 8h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 40¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $10 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $20 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 9h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.69 · official $39.69 (match) · 230 history records