Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

EF 0xefd6…ca34 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (379 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$48 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate38%10W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$122per market

Trades / day379.2pace

Fees−$40est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (379 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	-12.5%	-20.9%	38%	23%	-10.8%
≤30d	26	-12.5%	-20.9%	38%	23%	-10.8%
≤90d	26	-12.5%	-20.9%	38%	23%	-10.8%
all	26	-12.5%	-20.9%	38%	23%	-10.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover379.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-20.9%	23%	-10.8%
10% ← realistic here	-28.4%	23%	-19.3%
15%	-35.4%	15%	-27.1%
20%	-41.7%	15%	-34.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late -21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$48

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses10 / 16

Est. fees paid−$40

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage1d

Avg bet$122

Trades / day379.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$25	+$2	+9%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$80	−$11	-14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$202	−$2	-1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$114	−$2	-2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$5	$0	+10%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$50	+$12	+24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$103	−$1	-0%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$177	−$13	-7%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$10	$0	+4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$405	+$26	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 25	$7	−$4	-64%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$221	−$16	-7%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$129	−$6	-5%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$29	+$24	+84%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	+$12	+25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$26	−$8	-30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$334	−$11	-3%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 25	$1	$0	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 25	$18	−$10	-56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$2	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 25	$15	+$2	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 25	$7	−$7	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 25	$8	+$6	+74%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$711	−$6	-1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Jun 24	$34	−$11	-32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$404	−$31	-8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	96¢	$22	34m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	86¢	$5	37m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	86¢	$25	37m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	24¢	$8	42m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	29¢	$10	43m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	30¢	$22	44m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	34¢	$13	44m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	33¢	$13	44m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	31¢	$23	44m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	33¢	$13	45m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	33¢	$13	45m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	33¢	$15	45m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	36¢	$1	45m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	37¢	$15	46m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	36¢	$2	46m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	17¢	$24	47m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	47m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	21¢	$13	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	26¢	$0	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	23¢	$8	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$7	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	76¢	$8	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	76¢	$67	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	74¢	$11	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	76¢	$15	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	76¢	$1	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	74¢	$14	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	76¢	$4	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	78¢	$25	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	76¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 421 history records