Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefd7…575f world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$13
other 19% +$1
crypto 9% $0
politics 7% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% +$9
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.7% -13.8% 17% 0% -17.9%
≤30d 16 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 16 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 0% -11.3%
all 50 +10.8% +0.2% 48% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -9.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -18.1% 2% -26.3%
20% -26.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage470d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 84¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $23 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $55 −$16 -29%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $103 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $49 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 02 $17 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 31 $14 +$2 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 28 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on May 27? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $1 +$8 +531%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 08 $13 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 24 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $55 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $40 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $38 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $47 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $48 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.96 · official $36.08 (match) · 138 history records