Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xefd9…14d6 crypto 254 markets active 8d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,994 (-23%) realized −$1,513 · open −$481
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%58W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$924now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$288
30 days−$1,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$1,023
world 27% −$1,019
sports 13% +$494
other 4% −$9
economics 4% −$278
tech 4% −$269
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 155 -4.0% -13.1% 23% 23% -30.2%
≤90d 247 +5.2% -4.8% 23% 23% -28.6%
all 247 +5.2% -4.8% 23% 23% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 23% -28.6%
10% -13.9% 23% -35.4%
15% -22.2% 22% -41.7%
20% -29.8% 21% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$24 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$924
Realized−$1,513
Unrealized−$481
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses58 / 189
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions7
Markets (closed)247 / 254
History coverage28d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $600 $693 +$93 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $200 $120 −$80 (-40%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $100 $31 −$69 (-69%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $290 $21 −$269 (-93%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $65 $9 −$56 (-85%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $7 −$93 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$81 +786%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$19 +356%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$12 +29%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 15 $63 −$60 -95%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 15 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $508 +$563 +111%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $1,030 −$435 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$83 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $27 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 08 $207 −$200 -97%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $63 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $107 −$100 -94%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $222 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $52 10d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $50 10d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $600 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 12d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 2¢ $21 13d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $21 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 17d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 3¢ $31 17d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $923.85 · official $923.85 (match) · 481 history records