Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefdd…017f
sports · 107 markets active 3d ago
0.0score
+$10,144 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,299 · open +$1,845
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$10,551
Realized+$8,299
Unrealized+$1,845
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses54 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$17,609
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 107
Avg bet$13,309
Trades / day91.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196,094
7 days−$43,517
14 days−$133,162
30 days−$57,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 48¢ 81¢ $3,095 $5,255 +$2,159 (+70%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $4,420 $4,166 −$254 (-6%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 20¢ 19¢ $1,192 $1,131 −$61 (-5%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 46¢ 0¢ $21,727 $0 −$21,727 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 69¢ 0¢ $2,079 $0 −$2,079 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Texas Rangers 45¢ 0¢ $14,265 $0 −$14,265 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 18¢ 0¢ $15,730 $0 −$15,730 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 26¢ 0¢ $1,466 $0 −$1,466 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 15¢ 0¢ $262 $0 −$262 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Sebastian Ofner 37¢ 0¢ $4,856 $0 −$4,856 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago Cubs 49¢ 0¢ $24,626 $0 −$24,626 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 49¢ 0¢ $6,079 $0 −$6,079 (-100%)
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) Timberwolves 50¢ 0¢ $5,813 $0 −$5,813 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? No 48¢ 0¢ $14,175 $0 −$14,175 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Kansas City Royals 46¢ 0¢ $17,940 $0 −$17,940 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 0¢ $19,919 $0 −$19,919 (-100%)
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada Czechia 57¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $14,032 $0 −$14,032 (-100%)
West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $12,096 $0 −$12,096 (-100%)
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Finland 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif Dalma Galfi 54¢ 0¢ $3,759 $0 −$3,759 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud Jaume Munar 28¢ 0¢ $1,705 $0 −$1,705 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 45¢ 0¢ $10,544 $0 −$10,544 (-100%)
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Connecticut Sun 50¢ 0¢ $10,332 $0 −$10,332 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $14,265 −$14,265 -100%
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 12 $4,856 −$4,856 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) Jun 12 $5,813 −$5,813 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 12 $14,175 −$14,175 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 12 $17,940 −$17,940 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12,096 −$12,096 -100%
Madrid Open: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $1,705 −$1,705 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela (Welterweight, Prel Jun 12 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Jun 12 $4,454 −$4,454 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Jun 12 $2,251 −$2,251 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prel Jun 12 $7,400 −$7,400 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Maria Sakkari vs Paula Badosa Jun 12 $117 −$117 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Jun 12 $7,122 −$7,122 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 12 $3,144 −$3,144 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 12 $5,718 −$5,718 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Tamara Korpatsch vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 12 $2,796 −$2,796 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,492 −$2,492 -100%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Panna Udvardy Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Penguins vs. Devils Jun 12 $11,692 −$11,692 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $7,818 −$7,818 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,502 −$1,502 -100%
Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $505 −$505 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $3,173 −$3,173 -100%
Madrid Open: Camila Osorio vs Naomi Osaka Jun 12 $1,615 −$1,615 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-19? Jun 12 $6,307 −$6,307 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $2,539 −$2,539 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Jun 12 $4,075 −$4,075 -100%
Sharks vs. Predators Jun 12 $23,760 −$23,760 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $6,352 −$6,352 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Jun 12 $5,143 −$5,143 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P Jun 12 $823 −$823 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-27? Jun 12 $7,004 −$7,004 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $926 −$926 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $34,661 +$21,503 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $21,491 +$22,368 +104%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 08 $20,167 −$19,919 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $15,635 −$15,399 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $16,117 −$15,730 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $174,810 +$180,402 +103%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $6,236 −$6,139 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $12,623 −$11,816 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2,450 −$2,431 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $269 −$262 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 03 $7,862 +$3,590 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $6,172 −$6,079 -98%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $699 +$863 +124%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2,304 +$2,064 +90%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $43,234 +$28,202 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $25,873 +$43,072 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$280,671
other 22% −$74,432
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 48¢ $3,143 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $2,404 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $9 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $6 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $6 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $32 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $26 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $8,252 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $6 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $135 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $5 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $4 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $9 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $19 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $2 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $9 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $4 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $5 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $21 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $920 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $2 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $43 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $34 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $4 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $2 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $24 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $69 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $1,147 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $128 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -87.0% -88.3% 7% 7% -17.4%
≤30d 116 -28.5% -35.3% 35% 35% -13.3%
≤90d 138 -20.4% -28.0% 39% 38% -9.0%
all 138 -20.4% -28.0% 39% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover91.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 38% -9.0%
10% -34.9% 38% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -41.2% 38% -25.7%
20% -46.9% 37% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,551.43 · official $10,552.08 (match) · 3500 history records